Mobile Evolution - Thoughts, insight, and experiences related to the mobile software industry

Determining market share (not just units shipped in the most recent quarter) is a difficult task. For the purposes of this exercise, I was looking for a starting point that gave a general idea of where each platform was in relationship to another. Sometimes analyst projections can be misleading, so I picked reports by the OEM where available. After deciding on a platform, I recommend doing further research for your target market, as you will need finer numbers for a business plan, for example. Then you can factor out specific devices or versions of the operating systems.

Each platform has its caveats in for its numbers, especially if there are a number of devices involved. Here is some reference data for the numbers I used:

Android: T-Mobile's April 2009 quarterly report indicates the "sale of more than 1 million G1 handsets since the market launch." This number has most likely increased since April, along with additional handset releases pending.
Side note: Androlib is reporting, as of September 2009, that the number of apps on the Market have increased to 12,380 (36.4% paid).

Blackberry: Per Research in Motion's June 2009 Quarterly report, RIM states an established subscriber account base of 28.5 million. In the Blackberry World FAQ, nine smartphones can use Blackberry World, which is "accessible to all users who installed the BlackBerry App World application on their BlackBerry devices," so the store is not pre-installed. These facts should be kept in mind when making a decision regarding Blackberry development.

iPhone: 45 million install base as of July 2009.

Nokia: Symbian established base for smartphones is difficult to establish, therefore for this exercise, the 2008 sales volumes for smartphones were used. Some analysts do have inconsistent definitions for smartphones, of which is not clear in this estimate. However, this number is a conservative estimate for overall marketshare of Symbian smartphones. Please note that it is difficult to create one-size-fits-all software for the Symbian platform due to requirements, certification fees, and device differences, so only a portion of this market may be realistic.

Windows Mobile: Microsoft states that it has "...sold 20 million [new phones] in the last year alone." A 30 million established user base currently exists, according to many sources, including TechCrunch, selling "more than 50 million Window Mobile devices since we started," per Microsoft. The new marketplace will be included in the 6.5 Windows Mobile upgrade, so the user base of 6.5 will be less, depending on the percentage of upgrades. (Expect Microsoft to actively push for this upgrade.) In addition, Windows Mobile 6.5 will be shipped on 30 new phones, where the expectation is that this will generate 30 million additional sales. Much of this is projection, which should be taken account in your decision-making process. Where Microsoft goes with Windows Mobile in the next year will be something to watch.

Palm: The lowest number reported for Palm Pre sales at the end of June was 150,000. The volume number has most likely grown since then, but Palm has not released concrete data. Only one new handset, the Pixi, will soon be released to add to current volume. Still, 150k is a magnitude lower than its next highest competitor, so some comparisons can be made without exact figures.